(photo via Wikimedia commons)

Anybody who tells you they know what’s next is either:

  • lying,
  • a big Veep fan, or
  • has a six-figure contract with a news network and better make something up fast.

We throw around the words unprecedented these days so much in political contexts that the word barely has meaning. But what happened Sunday is unprecedented. It has never happened before. A candidate assured of the presidential nomination has never backed out at this late stage. Lyndon Johnson backed out at the beginning of the nomination process in 1968. Other presidents bowed out after one term because:

  • he was deeply unpopular and re-election was uncertain (Truman),
  • he pledged to serve one term because of a brokered convention (Polk, Hayes), or
  • were facing crises partly of their own making (Buchanan).

So we’re really in uncharted waters, and we’re heading toward the political reporters’ El Dorado: the brokered convention. It’s rumored to be there, but those riches are so very elusive.

Can Harris Beat Trump?

The horse-race scenario began last night. Polling is useless. Pollsters will disagree, but I put no stock in old polls of hypothetical matchups. Wait another week or two and see what polls look like when the dust settles. (I’d argue the same thing about the assassination attempt on former President Trump.) Harris could a big help to Democrats in metro areas of swing states, where she could turn out big numbers of minority voters. She could also be a hinderance in the Blue Wall states where white, blue-collar workers are disillusioned with the Biden Administration and the “woke” policies of many Democrats. Again, only time will tell.

What campaign issues will change?

In the beginning, Vice President Harris will probably be remarkably like President Biden on policy. She may tilt further left on some issues and be much more forceful on abortion and women’s health issues. Age is no longer a major issue the GOP can hammer on (except for the Democratic candidate’s “youth and inexperience”) and now must switch to defense on the issue. With the retrospectives on Biden, it is stark to see how strong Biden’s appearances seemed four years ago versus this year, and that could have people looking much more closely at former President Trump. Harris gets to find her own voice on these issues now after being second-fiddle for five years. Truth be told, only a trusted circle of advisors probably know what she really thinks about the major issues and whether the campaign will shift.

Could it be anyone other than Harris?

It’s no secret that many in the Democratic party leadership haven’t been super enthused about Harris leading into this campaign, but as I write this, it is definitely hers to lose. Her poll numbers are very similar to Biden’s (+12 disapproval like Biden and Trump) and she hasn’t led much on anything during this administration. Harris has one major advantage that any other candidate doesn’t have, which is the national organization. For a Governor Newsom or Pete Buttigieg, or Governor Whitmer to take over, they’d take over an apparatus that was built around Biden and Harris. Would they be as loyal? Would they stick around? Could they realistically replace defector staff in states where nobody knows who they are? This is a major advantage for Harris.

We have a long way to go, and if anyone tells you what the path ahead holds, they’re lying. If you’re a political geek, sit back and enjoy the first draft of history… what we’re witnessing is truly unprecedented.