When the Statehouse gets chaotic, or when your local county council decides to test-drive a new brand of political theater, smart leaders can’t freeze. They plan. Not for the most likely future. Not for the most comfortable. But for a range of plausible outcomes: The good, the bad, and the baffling.
We know we’re all operating in an era of radical uncertainty. Not just traditional concepts of “risk” – which business leaders can hedge, price, and plan for – but true uncertainty. The kind that wrecks confidence, scrambles agendas, and keeps decision-makers refreshing Twitter (sorry, X) instead of executing strategy.
You can see it right now in local government. One month, county leaders are talking about affordable housing. The next, they’re proposing massive new fees that will price more working families out. One week, a legislative caucus is unified. The next, it’s every member for themselves.
So how do you navigate this mess? Traditional scenario mapping almost feels like a wasted exercise. But there are steps you can take:
1. Stop Overreacting to Every Headline
Local governments, nonprofits, and regional coalitions too often latch onto whatever’s loudest that day – a viral Facebook post, a hot-take column, or a politician’s outburst – and make real-world decisions based on noise. That’s a mistake. Planning requires zooming out, not spinning out. The news cycle is moving faster than ever before. Tomorrow, it’ll move even faster. Today’s public fascination will be next week’s inside joke. Don’t overreact.
2. Focus on Preparation, Not Prediction
The best political observers I know aren’t fortune tellers – they’re scenario thinkers. They ask: “What are the two or three critical uncertainties we’re facing?” Then they sketch out multiple futures, not to guess which one will come true, but to be ready for any of them. I don’t predict the future for any of our clients any longer. My answers are “that’s the lay of the land … as of right now.”
3. Widen Your Circle Before Crisis Hits
When uncertainty spikes, too many leaders retreat into a smaller and smaller group of advisors – giving them the same voices, the same viewpoints, and the same blind spots. You need fresh eyes on the problem, not just loyal ones. Scenario thinking in this unstable environment works best when you bring in outside perspectives: stakeholders from different regions, sectors, and political backgrounds who can help you see what you’ve missed. Build those relationships now, before you’re forced to make decisions under fire.
- What happens if the next budget cycle includes a surprise surplus (which it looks like it will) … or a painful shortfall?
- What if federal housing dollars vanish … or are restored?
- What if new media voices … YouTube commentators, county council livestreamers … become more influential than traditional outlets?
None of this is far-fetched. We’ve already seen how fast power can shift, how fast public sentiment can turn, and how little warning we get when it does.
Bottom line: You don’t need a crystal ball. But you do need a broad, flexible scenario map. And you need the discipline to use it. Because political uncertainty isn’t going away. And in South Carolina politics, betting on the status quo might be the riskiest move of all.